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Neighbourhoods with more young adults show higher turnout in a community election. Why does this not establish that young adults personally voted more often?

Answer and explanation

Correct answer: An association between group characteristics and group outcomes does not identify individuals' behaviour

Group-level turnout and population composition do not reveal exactly which individuals voted. Drawing conclusions about individual behaviour from neighbourhood averages risks an ecological inference error.

Related tags

Ecological InferenceGroup Level DataVoting TurnoutStatistical Reasoning

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