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A researcher claims that a newly opened vocational centre caused a decline in unemployment, but records show unemployment had already declined before the centre opened. What problem does this create?

Answer and explanation

Correct answer: The earlier decline cannot have been caused by a centre that had not yet opened

A proposed cause must occur before the effect attributed to it. A decline beginning before the centre opened cannot be explained by its opening, although the centre might influence subsequent changes.

Related tags

Temporal OrderCausal InferenceUnemploymentResearch Evidence

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