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If the 5 to 14 age group is very large but the 0 to 4 group is much smaller, what may happen to school demand over the next ten years?

Answer and explanation

Correct answer: It may remain high initially and decline later

The relevant concept is cohort movement and the time lag between age structure and service demand. A very large 5-to-14 cohort is already in, or is approaching, school ages, so schools may face high enrolment and capacity requirements at first. The much smaller 0-to-4 cohort will enter school ages several years later, bringing fewer new pupils if migration and mortality do not substantially alter the pattern. Consequently, demand may stay high initially and then decline. Option B is correct. It is too extreme to say demand becomes immediately zero, continuously doubles, or transforms into elderly health demand.

Related tags

School DemandCohort ReplacementChild PopulationDemographic LagAge StructurePopulation CompositionGeographyClass 12 Mcq

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