If child dependency is declining but total dependency is increasing, which explanation is most likely?

Correct answer: Elderly dependency is rising faster than child dependency is falling

Total dependency includes both child dependency and elderly dependency. Child dependency can fall when the number or share of children decreases, often because fertility is declining. However, total dependency may still rise if the elderly share increases by an even larger amount. In that situation, the fall in child dependency is more than offset by growth in elderly dependency.

Therefore, option A is the most likely explanation. A rapidly growing working-age population would usually tend to reduce the dependency ratio, not raise it, if other factors stayed similar. A declining elderly population would work against the stated result, while doubling child population would generally increase child dependency. The key is that total dependency is the combined effect of its child and elderly components.